Sonay Kartal x Xinyu Wang

The difference here is match sharpness. Wang was crisp against Donna Vekic in Singapore, winning 6-1, 6-2 with confident serving and returning; Kartal has only two matches since a six-month layoff with a lower-back stress fracture.

Kartal’s near-three-hour contest with Marie Bouzkova showed she can compete, and her 6-2, 6-3 Beijing opener was tidy. But a short win over a qualifier cannot yet confirm her old level is back. At 1.93, Wang looks the better side of a line that gives Kartal’s comeback a little too much credit.

Wang’s three-set loss to Tatiana Prozorova is a warning, not proof of a habit of failing to close. Kartal knows Beijing well and reached last year’s quarterfinal, so this is no carefree pick; Wang’s fuller run of hard-court matches is the difference.