Jasmine Paolini opens her US Open against Veronika Erjavec on Sunday at 15:00 UTC, first round on the New York hard courts. Paolini sits at No. 20, Erjavec at No. 106 and making her main-draw debut at this event. The result is one question; the number of games is the more interesting one.
A layoff against a run of near misses
Paolini's last competitive tennis came at Wimbledon, where she lost the opening set 0-6 to Robin Montgomery before surviving in three, beat Alexandra Eala 6-4 4-6 6-3, then was pushed off the court by Marta Kostyuk 3-6 2-6. Since then: a left foot problem, withdrawals from Washington, Toronto and Cincinnati, and practice in New York as her only hard-court preparation.
Erjavec has lost four straight, though the most recent was 6-7(5) 6-3 6-7(3) to Julia Grabher across two tiebreaks, including a break back when Grabher served for the match. She has not controlled a match lately. She has stayed attached to several, which is the more relevant skill on Sunday.
Why the spread reads softer than the price
Even at full sharpness this season Paolini has rarely handed out routine wins, and the slow start is a documented habit. A player returning from nearly two months of rehabilitation, whose game is built on lateral push and emergency changes of direction, is not the obvious candidate for a one-sided afternoon.
The handicap survives 6-4 6-3, 6-4 6-4, any set Erjavec takes and any upset. At better than even money, that is a wide enough range of outcomes to back.
Prediction: Erjavec +5.5 games, odds 2.142
