Jessica Bouzas Maneiro meets Elena Rybakina in the US Open second round on Friday, September 4 at 01:00 UTC. Rybakina owns the heavier hard-court game, but the size of the expected margin deserves inspection.
Bouzas starts well; Rybakina carries the larger question
Bouzas Maneiro beat 75th-ranked Darja Vidmanova 6-3, 6-4 in her opener, returning sharply and settling after both a dip in level and a long rain delay. Her recent losses to Katerina Siniakova and Xiyu Wang followed first-set wins, so the issue has been completion rather than immediate resistance.
Rybakina's level is plainly higher: she beat 16th-ranked Diana Shnaider 6-4, 6-4 in Cincinnati and handled Thea Frodin 6-3, 6-2 here. Still, the left ankle that ended her match against Iga Swiatek received little lateral examination in round one; short rallies are considerate that way.
The first counterattack should decide the spread
Bouzas Maneiro must avoid feeding Rybakina central, waist-high pace and instead use width to demand repeated changes of direction. Her second serve remains the vulnerable part, particularly once a lead begins to feel real.
Even so, +5.5 games allows room for the familiar pattern: Bouzas competing closely early, perhaps taking a set, before Rybakina's cleaner striking takes over. Given Rybakina's recent slow starts and unresolved durability question, the cushion is generous.
Prediction: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro +5.5 games, odds 1.87
