Palpites para Maria Timofeeva — Mia Pohankova

Timofeeva has been in control in Porto: she beat Gabriela Knutson 6-1, 6-2 in 1 hour 13 minutes, leaning on the return and never letting the match stretch. She has not dropped a set all week, and arrives at the semifinal with considerably less court time than Mia Pohankova.

Pohankova is no soft landing. She pushed Knutson to three sets last week, beat Veronika Podrez here and showed real nerve against Katie Swan, saving match points before completing a 2-hour-19-minute comeback.

That fight deserves respect, but it also leaves Pohankova with a heavier physical and emotional bill against the higher-ranked Timofeeva. At 1.67, Timofeeva to win looks a better price than her commanding Porto run might suggest; Pohankova’s resilience is the clear danger, not a reason to ignore the extra work she has done.