Palpites para Caty McNally — Dayana Yastremska

McNally has the variety to make Yastremska work for her first strike: changes of pace and forward movement can break up the Ukrainian’s hitting rhythm. She beat Linda Noskova on hard courts and took the opening set from Emma Navarro, while Yastremska has lost three straight hard-court matches.

The warning signs are specific: Yastremska led Janice Tjen 4–1 in the deciding set and still lost, then struggled to contain her errors against Lucrezia Stefanini. With no match since the US Open to show she has steadied things, McNally to win is the side I prefer at 1.54; that price underrates the matchup.

Yastremska’s power and main-tour pedigree can still flip the script, and McNally can rush for winners when rallies stretch. The neck treatment Yastremska received at the US Open is not a reason to oppose her: her current condition is unverified.

Yastremska has not won a singles match since Wimbledon. Her hard-court run included a 1–6, 2–6 loss to Maria, a deciding-set collapse from 4–1 up against Tjen, and a US Open defeat to Stefanini, where 51 unforced errors outweighed 10 winners. She also needed treatment for her neck; its status is unknown.

McNally has better recent evidence: she beat Noskova, recovered after Eala broke for the match, and took the first set from Navarro. Her patience can go when rallies lengthen, but Yastremska’s first-strike game is not built to grind them out. McNally’s changes of pace and net play could disturb her timing.

At 1.54, McNally to win is worth backing. The price gives Yastremska credit for her past reputation, while her current hard-court form and lack of match play since New York make a revival difficult to price in. The reported destruction of her family’s apartment in Odesa is serious context, though its effect on her readiness cannot be known.

The 2021 head-to-head, decided by two tie-breaks, says little about this match. McNally’s −3.5 is less attractive given her tight wins and Yastremska’s ability to steal a set; 21.5 games has no clear lean, with both a quick loss and a long match plausible.