Palpites para Katie Volynets — Elise Mertens

The Singapore loss looks worse on the scoreline than it does as a forecast. Maja Chwalinska’s slices, spin changes and drop shots pulled errors from Elise Mertens; that is a specific disruption, not proof that Katie Volynets can copy it just by extending rallies.

Mertens had pushed No. 17 Naomi Osaka to a decider at the US Open, and has faced stronger opposition than most of Volynets’s recent run. Volynets deserves credit for her Philadelphia title and Seoul wins, but No. 41 Kimberly Birrell stopped her there, and her Beijing opener was a 7-5, 7-5 grind against No. 171 Robin Montgomery. At 1.80, Mertens to win is the side I want.

The concern is real: Mertens has not played a completed match in Beijing, and the Singapore report of shoulder discomfort remains unverified as a current problem. That makes this a measured call, not a clean bill of health.