Palpites para Linda Noskova — Ekaterina Alexandrova

Noskova’s serve has held up against better opposition than this week’s: she swept three BJK Cup rubbers, including the title-clincher over Svitolina, then pushed Sabalenka to a final-set tie-break at the US Open. Her two Beijing wins were short; the Ruse result gets a small asterisk because her opponent needed treatment.

Alexandrova’s late-summer record has a less reassuring shape: after taking the first set, she won only three more games against Svitolina in Toronto and Bejlek in Cincinnati, then lost 3-6, 2-6 to Kostyuk. The Shnaider comeback showed useful variation, but took nearly two hours; she was also listed for doubles, and her confidence in the ball is a comfort, not a guarantee.

Noskova −4.5 games is the better fit than the short outright price. At 2.00, the line leaves room for Alexandrova to take a set if Noskova pulls away elsewhere. Their 6-1, 6-1 Stuttgart meeting is a reminder of the possible margin, though it was on clay.

The total is less appealing: two tight sets, or a lopsided three-setter, can undo the Under. The risk here is the same tight-set pattern—their 2025 hard-court meeting went three sets with a tie-break—and Noskova has hesitated while serving to finish, as against Kostyuk. Alexandrova has also beaten Sabalenka in Toronto, so a collapse is not a foregone conclusion.