Palpites para Alina Charaeva — Qinwen Zheng

Zheng’s Beijing wins have required three deciders. Against Shi, she said forced aggression brought errors; Kalinskaya led by a set before illness ended the match; Bouzkova erased Zheng’s early lead, and Zheng needed a late break for 7-5 in the third. A cough, sun trouble and nearly 8½ hours add to the concern.

Charaeva’s long opener and Rybakina’s foot and recovery problems temper that upset. Kartal is firmer evidence: Charaeva recovered an early break, served out the first set under pressure and won 6-4, 6-1. Her closing, shaky against Blinkova, looks better; no current injury is reported.

Charaeva +4.5 games is the play at this near-even price. A set would put her close to cover, and a 6-4, 6-4 loss does; only a wide defeat fails. Her outright price is too long: the case is for competitiveness, not an upset.

Zheng’s serve can still dominate; Charaeva’s second serve has produced 16 double faults against Bondar, and the home crowd could help make this quick. Over 20.5 is less appealing: long-match form does not rule out quick sets. Zheng has said she knows little of Charaeva’s game.