Palpites para Ann Li — Elina Svitolina

Li has needed little time in Beijing, and the first serve is doing real work: she hit 12 aces against Bencic and won the large majority of first-serve points. Her +4.5-game handicap is the better way to back that form than asking her to win outright.

Svitolina remains the likelier winner, but a comfortable margin is less certain. She lost to Minnen after leading and to Kalinskaya after moving ahead in the decider; even her latest win, 6-4 7-5 over Sakkari, was decided late. Li has also shown she can hang in when her best shot-making is missing.

A 6-4 6-4 or 7-5 6-4 Svitolina win still keeps Li within the number. Over 20.5 is less attractive because 6-4 6-4 falls short, while Li to win is too speculative. The danger is Li’s second serve: Svitolina can attack it, and a couple of cheap breaks would change the shape of the match.