Palpites para Mariam Bolkvadze — Bianca Vanessa Andreescu

Bolkvadze is on her fourth match in five days, after an almost three-hour comeback against Tkacheva and yesterday’s win over Jeanjean. Jeanjean had just won the Adana title, so that 6-3, 6-1 result is useful but not a clean measure of Bolkvadze against a rested opponent. Andreescu had an extra day after a 56-minute 6-0, 6-0 opener.

The more specific concern is Bolkvadze’s second serve: she won only 2 of 9 points behind it against Jeanjean, 10 of 27 against Tkacheva and 6 of 23 against Liu, with double faults also an issue. Andreescu has been forceful returning against Vedder and Podrez. The −4.5-game handicap reflects that pressure, a class gap between a former world No. 4 and the player ranked 370, and Bolkvadze’s two recent 0-6 deciders, against Kasatkina and at Evansville.

Andreescu’s losses came against stronger opposition, or with her movement hampered against Zidansek. The straight win is too short; Under 19.5 is less tidy, losing on 6-4, 6-4 or a dominant three-setter. The risk is Andreescu failing to sustain her level: Bolkvadze’s left-handed angles and resilience could make this closer, especially if sets reach 6-4.