Palpites para Qinwen Zheng — Elina Svitolina

Zheng’s serve and improved first shot after it make a routine straight-sets win difficult. Over 21.5 games fits the other part of her pattern: she let a first-set lead against Kalinskaya slip, went nearly three hours with Bouzkova, then lost control against Charaeva before giving back a late break in the decider.

Svitolina can interrupt those surges, but her serve has not been beyond pressure. She survived long service games against Ann Li and dropped the opening set to Siniakova; tight holds and traded breaks are plausible. Zheng’s home crowd, which she has called a “fifth Grand Slam,” adds another reason to expect her to stay engaged.

A 7-5, 6-4 finish clears the line. Zheng +2.5 is more exposed to her workload, while backing her to win depends too much on freshness. The total asks less about the winner.

The risk is real: Zheng has played four long Beijing matches and said she was not at her best physically. She also says her endurance is good, and lately she has fought through difficult passages rather than folded.