Palpites para Qinwen Zheng — Elise Mertens

Serve and return point towards a long match. Zheng has built points well behind her serve, while Mertens beat Swiatek without facing a break point and still found a way to close when her own service game wobbled.

Zheng has repeatedly taken control, let it slip, then pushed again—against Han Shi, Kalinskaya, Bouzkova and Charaeva. Even the straight-sets win over Svitolina tightened into a second-set tie-break. She has admitted that holding focus remains unfinished work; Mertens, who recovered from deciding-set deficits earlier in the week, is well placed to make those lapses count. Their only previous meeting went the distance.

Over 22.5 games is the read, and 1.984 is a worthwhile price. A decider is realistic; even in two sets, a tie-break or 7-5 set gets the total there. Zheng to win looks fairly priced, while her habit of surrendering leads makes Zheng −1.5 games a poor fit.

The concern is workload: Zheng has said she is not at her freshest, and Mertens also has a doubles semifinal today. Either could produce a lopsided set. Still, both have competed strongly late, and there is no sign of a physical limit already breaking their resistance.