Palpites para Alexandra Eala — Han Shi

The ranking gap is clear; the recent scorelines are less so. Eala let a deciding-set break slip against Jovic, could not protect leads against Prozorova, and saw Wang turn a dominant start into a loss. Her return remains a weapon, but the serve has not reliably shut the door.

Shi has earned her place in this argument. She came back from a set down against Stearns, then took control after a tight first-set tiebreak against Rakhimova; in Beijing, she pushed Zheng to a decider before Zheng went on to win the title. Shi +5.5 games covers close straight-set losses such as 6-4, 6-4, as well as most matches in which she takes a set. At 1.74, that cushion suits the evidence better than asking Shi to win outright: Eala’s level and returning still make her the rightful favourite.

Over 19.5 is less forgiving: a 6-3, 6-4 loss for Shi falls short while the handicap covers. The risk is a slow start, with Eala sustaining her level; Shi has also played on successive qualifying days before this late session. Neither has a reported injury, and Shi has been improving as matches go on.