Tjen and Starodubtseva meet in the second round on hard courts, and the pricing does more than favour the Indonesian at 1.63. It asks her to win with a margin. Her first-round match ran past two hours and ended deep into the night, while Starodubtseva was long finished.
One of them survives matches, the other closes them
Tjen has spent the past month winning from positions she should not have won from. She trailed Yastremska 0-4 in the deciding set and 3-5 in the tiebreak and still came through; in Cincinnati she needed more than three hours and wasted six match points against Golubic, part of that stretch with a strapped wrist. Her only comfortable win in that run came against an opponent from outside the top 100.
Starodubtseva ended a long barren spell by beating Tagger in straight sets: no double faults, steady pressure on return, both sets closed out without a wobble. She lengthens rallies, which is precisely what pushed Tjen into rushed forehands against Andreeva. The honest caveat is that she has followed good starts with sets lost 1-6 and 2-6.
The two and a half games the market is demanding
For the favourite's handicap to land, Tjen needs the kind of control she has not produced since mid-summer, on legs that were still on court at 1am. The likeliest outcome remains Tjen grinding out three sets on willpower, and that scenario pays here.
The cushion covers it, and covers an outright Ukrainian win too. Backing Starodubtseva with the games start.
Prediction: Starodubtseva +2.5 games, odds 1.865
